There are countless 'handicapping services' in the business of providing people with parlays. They'll tout win rates similar to probably the most impressive straight wager cappers. Of course, so as to they refer to money line parlays as 'safe' bets. On several sites you may have the privilege of dealing with some form of royalty in the field of parlay wagering. Regrettably, thousands will be fooled by this fiction again this football season.
The truth is that exotic wagers keep sports books running a business. Next time you are in Vegas take a look at the discarded tickets you see spread all over the place. It's safe to assume that might be nearly all these losers are made of such bets positioned on both sports and racing. Of all sucker bets open to sports bettors, the parlay is king. Bettors are lured in by the promise of a huge payout while disregarding the fact that there is absolutely no reasonable expectation of any return on the investment.
The home edge on a standard straight wager at -110 is 4.5%. Compared with many table games this is really a fairly raised percentage. Plenty of table games and slots provide a better value for the average bettor placing a random wager. However, we all know that betting on sports isn't anything like throwing a set of dice at the back wall.
Chance plays a role in everything the house has to offer. There are also steps that could be taken to decrease the edge in only about every game. Nowhere in the casino are elements such as skill and preparation more useful compared to the sports book. The edge on a straight wager could be reversed in the bettors favor through the use of statistics and expertise in a sport. However, a double digit house edge can't ever be overcome in the long run.
# of Teams | Actual Odds | Typical Payout | House Edge
2 | 3/1 | 2.6/1 | 10.00%
3 | 7/1 | 6/1 | 12.50%
4 | 15/1 | 10/1 | 31.25%
5 | 31/1 | 20/1 | 34.38%
6 | 63/1 | 40/1 | 35.94%
7 | 127/1 | 75/1 | 40.63%
8 | 255/1 | 150/1 | 41.02%
9 | 511/1 | 300/1 | 41.21%
10 | 1023/1 | 700/1 | 31.54%
As you can plainly see every parlay you can possibly bet has a whopping 10% house edge or better. Such casino advantages are more consistent with keno, plus they are equally impossible to overcome in the long run. There is no mystery surrounding the world of parlays. Bettors are drawn to risking a small amount of money for large payouts. The games that are most often played in the casino are slots that offer thousands and even millions in progressive jackpots. The mentality of the bettors is 'Go big, or go back home.' The casino is actually pleased to oblige as an incredible number of bettors go back home with nothing in their pockets every year.
It is fair to assume that the biggest number of losing bets a book accepts are exotic wagers of add up to or double the house minimum. This is due to most bettors don't have a meaningful bankroll set aside for sports betting. Since they don't believe they are able to make any real cash by placing $25-50 on several games per week they continue taking parlays for $20 or less. By doing this they essentially ensure a significant loss by the finish of the growing season. Meanwhile, should they only placed straight wagers at that same level they might limit their potential losses to a few units at most.
Many bettors assume that because they're keeping the size of their bets low they are not taking on a substantial risk. This analysis is flawed because it ignores several factors. link new88 , it really is my experience that most bettors usually do not place just one single parlay per week. In football this means a minimum of 34 parlays are placed during the regular season. In baseball that number can simply exceed 100. With a low unit bet that is still a dangerous amount of wagers to place with such a high house edge. For instance, should you be placing only 5 team parlays your expectation should be to lose about $35 for each and every $100 you wager. As the number of bets you place increases it really is inevitable that you will hit that $100 mark many times over.
Using parlays as a side bet will most likely result in upping your losses or erasing any profits you were able to make on straight wagers. In 2009 2009, I had a client who broke even after increasing his bankroll by 45% using my picks. He managed to do that by placing 'small' side bets including parlays, reverses, and teasers. That is an expensive lesson to learn especially when you take into account I issued an identical warning to him.
If you are likely to follow his lead and continue using parlays I've a few pointers that will help in the long term. First of all, the best value of all parlays is clearly the three team parlay. The difference between your house edge on a 2 & 3 teamer is insignificant, but the payout is a lot more than twice as much. If you take a look at the graph you need to understand why I'd never bet a parlay of 4 teams or more. However, if you're going to make this investment here are two useful tips:
If you are going to bet a four or five 5 team parlay, always make it 6 or even 10. The difference between the house edge to include one or two 2 more teams is within 5 percentage points and the payout is significantly higher for both options. The home edge on a 10 teamer is virtually the same as a 4 team parlay, but the actual probability of hitting it are over 1,000 to at least one 1.
If you are going to throw your money away chasing huge payouts on 7, 8, and 9 team parlays then just bet the 10 teamer. The House edge is about 10 points lower than all three of those bets also it typically pays about 700/1.
Setting reasonable goals and being patient while working to achieve them may be the sign of a profitable professional bettor. Greed must be kept in check in order to be successful. In this regard, every bettor has two options. It is possible to chase high returns while assuming a huge amount of unnecessary risk. Or you can minimize your exposure to a few units while maintaining an acceptable expectation to increase your bankroll by 50%...The choice is yours.